Recent developments on both sides of the Atlantic are puzzling. Looming defaults of some Euro area countries like Ireland, Spain or Greece put the Euro under pressure while at the same time the imminent danger of a default of California does not cause a weakening in the US dollar (see FTD) .
The most interesting thing about this: For members of the Euro area there is no doubt that a bail out will take place once a member has to default (see the statement given by the German Federal Minister of Finance in the final paragraphs of this piece). As for California, a bail out cannot be taken for granted.
Does this imply that markets do not demand bail outs but actually punish them?!
Maybe the answer is that markets expect that California, as the world's economically strongest region, could afford an increase in taxes for paying down its debt, while this option is not available to Euro area countries like Ireland, Spain and Greece...
Ph.D. programme on global financial markets and international financial stability at Jena University and Halle University, Germany
Mittwoch, 18. Februar 2009
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