In the WSJ, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explains the Fed's exit strategy from quantitative monetary easing. It relies on two pillars:
The first pillar is paying interest on bank reserves with the aim of giving banks incentive to redeposit excess liquidity with the Fed instead of letting them push monetary aggregates. It is noteworthy that Bernanke explicitly refers to M1 and M2, not only credit aggregates! Both, paying interest on reserve accounts and looking at monetary aggregates has always been part of the monetary policy framework of the ECB.
The second pillar is curtailing the Fed's balance sheet. For this, Bernanke considers four measures. 1) Reverse repos: they may be suitable if a temporary down scaling is aimed at, but I doubt that it suits if one needs a permanent withdrawal of monetary expansion. 2) The Treasury selling bills and depositing the proceeds with the Federal Reserve: a severe threat to the Fed's independence, without which inflation will be unleashed - it's like casting out devils through Beelzebub. 3) Term deposits: nothing new from a European perspective. 4) Sale of long-term securities into the open market: maybe the most natural way of thinking about curtailing monetary expansion, but there is very little experience with block sales of that size and with these market segments in question.
On of the most interesting questions is whether inflation is more of a problem in the US than in the Euro area. To find an answer one should recognize that 1) monetary policy has been more expansive in the US, and 2) the tools needed to curtail monetary expansion have been already available to the ECB from the outset, so that market participants are more experienced with them in the Euro area than in the US.
Ph.D. programme on global financial markets and international financial stability at Jena University and Halle University, Germany
Sonntag, 26. Juli 2009
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